“According to the findings posted to Cuban’s website, only 36 percent of all businesses included in the study that were allowed to reopen on May 1 actually chose to open their doors. Of those businesses, a staggering 96 percent failed to comply with all of the Open Texas guidelines. The shoppers observed that restaurants were more likely to comply with some requirements, like separating tables and asking employees to wear masks, than they were with guidelines like offering single use condiments or contactless payment.” Definitely check out the full study.
If this trend continues as states reopen, it’s bad news for the economy.
To mostly everyone, these staggering unemployment numbers don’t feel real yet. People think this pandemic is just going to blow right over, and life is just weeks away from returning to normal. Optimism is especially high because those $1,200 stimulus checks are three times the amount of cash over 40% of American’s have in their savings account on any given day. Plus, Unemployment is paying millions of people more than they regularly make at their jobs. A very large portion of Americans probably feel more “financially secure” right now than any other time in recent memory. However, as economic activity starts trending down from lack of public confidence in local governments ability to stop the Coronavirus, that financial security will evaporate extremely quickly.
People are ready to return to normal, and the market is reflecting that. We saw it in economic activity this last week with all the reopenings. However, The fact of the matter is a virus with a .5%-1% death rate is spreading rapidly, and it’s going to have to infect 220,000,000 Americans before it stops, unless we stop it first. That’s 1 person in every 10th family (assuming each family has 16 people across 3-4 generations) . This virus also does permanent damage to the lungs, heart, kidneys, and/or the central nervous system in 20% of cases, and will require lifetime treatment (1 in every 2 families).
We dont have adequate testing, not enough people are wearing masks, and Mark Cuban’s study in Dallas showed less than 4% of businesses were following every public health guideline in their reopened economy. The longer people take to realize what’s going on and react accordingly, the harder the economy is going to crash when they do. We’re in the second inning of a nine inning stretch, and If businesses don’t start following these health guidelines in the next two weeks, things are going to get really messy, and people will stay home on their own. It’s a mathematical certainty.